Is a “birthgap” a real thing? Do aging populations need more babies?
The Claim
Birthgap says…
“And the large gap between the number of newborns and the number of people they will have to support into retirement is significant socially and economically. Given that these gaps have been caused by long term low birth rates, I decided to call any shortfall in workers birthgaps.”
(Birthgap, Part 2, 11:05)
“The problem for nations with long-term low birth rates is that … they will suffer when year after year there will be fewer customers and revenue for businesses, and for governments a shrinking tax base.”
(Birthgap Part 2, 39:34)
The Reality
The term “birthgap” has no specific meaning or significance among demographers. Age structures are changing due to positive trends towards greater gender equality and longer life expectancy. Necessary adjustments to our economy are needed to adapt to these changes and can be accomplished through progressive policies that strengthen social safety nets and integrate seniors into meaningful roles in society.
It’s more complicated than that.
The Research
Population aging has resulted from positive trends toward longer, healthier lives and smaller families. Smaller families allow for more investment in each child. The challenges from population aging can be addressed through appropriate government planning by enhancing opportunities for people in all age groups to thrive and lead meaningful lives (United Nations DESA, 2023).
There is little evidence to support the oft-cited claim that aging societies’ health care systems are unsustainable. Promoting healthy and active aging through policies such as flexible work schedules, universal health care, and a strong intergenerational safety net can enable older people to participate in work and contribute meaningfully to society, benefiting all groups (WHO, 2019; WHO, 2022).
Outdated models of measuring prosperity solely through GDP growth do not measure the enormous contribution of older adults through unpaid labor such as community and family support and care. They also underestimate the levels of education, skills, and contributions of future older generations. New models, as well as efforts to eliminate ageist discrimination in the workplace, would support our elders to thrive as productive members of society (Harper, 2023).
Low fertility results from many positive trends – the expansion of education, greater gender equality, and lower child mortality. It offers opportunities for greater individual prosperity, greater investment in children’s health and education, and better social safety nets. It also helps mitigate our enormous impact on the environment (Skirbekk, 2022).