Is a catastrophic population collapse coming?
The Claim
Birthgap says…
“I'm worried about the birth rate. Most people think we have too many people on the planet, but actually this is an outdated view. I think that the biggest problem the world will face in 20 years is population collapse.”
(Birthgap Part 1, 2:55)
“The idea that immigration is the magic solution to solve the birth gap crisis is going to leave a lot of industrialized nations disappointed. There just won't be enough people to fill the gaps in their workforces.”
(Birthgap Part 3, 23:53)
The Reality
Fertility decline is indeed a clear global phenomenon, but varies in accordance with women’s level of education and access to contraception. The total global fertility rate is 2.3 children per woman today, which means that the population is still growing by about 80 million people each year. All credible projections point to the global population continuing to grow well into this century. Countries with low or declining fertility can supplement their populations by accepting more international migrants. Dramatic population decline is far more likely in the foreseeable future from catastrophic effects of climate change, food and water shortage, or war, than from declining fertility.
The claim is false.
The Research
On the lowest end, the United Nations projects a population of 8.8 billion in 2043, the smallest of its 15 population scenarios. The median projections are 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100 (United Nations, 2022a).
Two-thirds of the projected global population increase through 2050 will be driven by the momentum of past growth that has resulted in a large number of people of childbearing age. Such growth would continue even if the global fertility rate were to fall immediately to the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. In high-income, low-fertility countries, international migration continues to drive population growth (United Nations, 2022b).
The U.S. Census Bureau projects a population of 9.3 billion in 2043, and 10.2 billion in 2060 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2023).
The Population Reference Bureau projects a population of 8.9 billion in 2035 and 9.8 billion in 2050 (Population Reference Bureau, 2022).
A study in The Lancet projects the population to peak at just over 8 billion in 2046, with a gradual decline to 6.8 billion in 2100, which was the population in 2009. This projection is based on a highly optimistic scenario of realizing full access to contraception and achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (Vollset et al., 2020).